Morning, hopefully everyone has some plans today.
*Since I’ve been writing this Biden has delayed the approval.
I genuinely can’t wait for them to try this. This is probably the third time we’ve seen a round of articles about conscription or national service, all done to warm up your brain for the possibility of it being required. It’s so obvious considering the state of sentiment in the UK currently and the popularity of the PM, that people would simply say no. But that it’s obvious is actually what’s scary. There is no deep held belief in the UK, despite the Ukrainian flags in bios and consistent messaging over the last three years about Ukraines’ fate being our fate if we don’t support them, that this is a priority for the British people. Certainly not enough of a priority that you and your children would choose to die for it. Many of the same people who have flag emojis on shuffle in their social bios would also consider themselves anti war and would have no issue conscientiously objecting and going to prison - no doubt letting more people out - rather than fight. A society so obsessed with human rights would struggle to stop them either, as it’s recognised under International human rights law - which apparently is the Bible, when it suits. Calling people cowards to try and shame them into not going wouldn’t work either, that ship has sailed, those going would be branded as sheep. The military would go of course, that’s their job and unfashionable as it is, they want to experience war. As I’ve said previously though, as soon as the FPS footage of a female soldier (max psychological impact of course) being chased down and blown up by a drone spreads online, it’s all going to go wrong. The scary thing is that considering the above, as government if you really think you’re going to do this, you need a spectacular in order to unite and galvanise against the foe. A 9/11 level event so bad that there is so much shock and fear generated that it overrides all previous thought and emotion, replacing it with rage and the desire for revenge. Do you think our leaders aren’t aware of that?
There’s a theory slowly gaining traction that the reason we’re now seeing western weapons being green lit to strike within Russia is to provoke just this kind of event as a response from Putin. There’s a very obvious battle happening between various factions within the US state and associated parties about whether it’s time to get a peace deal done or keep fighting. You see this in the messaging Zelensky puts out - which he of course is just the mouthpiece for. One minute he’s mounting new attacks and saying he needs further support to keep fighting, the next he’s talking about trying to find a peace deal, all at the whims of his backers. There will no doubt be some who have confidence there’s no way Trump will win, that November is a the last significant speed bump of doubt before four more years are locked in and everyone can re-commit to the weaken Russia, continue the money train, plan. But there will also be some who think Trump will win and shut the whole thing down, something he has to do once in office as he’s made such a big thing about it. Now that just means everything transitions to the rebuild phase, money is made in a different way and no doubt something exciting will happen to ensure the Middle East or Asia takes it’s turn as the threat. But if you don’t want that yet, and you want a plan B for if Trump does win, then leaving him with no choice but to commit to a war he’s run on stopping, humiliating him and pinning all future developments on him - US boots on the ground, the huge numbers of deaths etc - is a pretty big win. You have a cake tastier than you had before and you get to eat it. None of that happens though without a spectacular, something so bad that Trump can’t let Putin get away with.
We should be concerned.